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Is global warming just a giant natural fluctuation?

RATE THIS! +37
Posted in Science on 13th Apr, 2014 11:44 PM by AlexMuller

An analysis of temperature data since 1500 all but rules out the possibility that global warming in the industrial era is a natural fluctuation in the climate, according to a new study. The study represents a new approach to the question of whether global warming has been caused largely by man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

 
Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature.
 
“This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,” Lovejoy says. “Their two most convincing arguments, that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong, are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”
 
Lovejoy’s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.”

Tags: climate changeglobal warmingCO2greenhouse gasesnatureenvironment

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Comments

Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+3
Statements like this that "the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%" is something that should tip the balance of debates and prompt the long needed action
4 Replies
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+3
Yes, this is very hot topic and there is deliberate attempt to deny evidence like this! An extensive study into the financial networks that support groups denying the science behind climate change and opposing political action has found a vast secretive web of think tanks and industry associations, bankrolled by conservative billionaires. This is very important to know when following any debate on this topic! Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+0
This network resulted not just an obfuscation of fact and deliberate effort to slow any progress on addressing the most pressing issue of our time, but is an assault on democracy. Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+0
We need to know the extent and players in this dangerous, organized effort to prevent policies that will limit the carbon pollution emissions that drive man-made climate change Reply
Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+2
Great work. To assess the natural variability before much human interference, the new study uses “multi-proxy climate reconstructions” developed by scientists in recent years to estimate historical temperatures, as well as fluctuation-analysis techniques from nonlinear geophysics.
4 Replies
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+1
Yes, and there are so many other reasons to get off of fossil fuels and embrace a clean energy future. 
Fossil fuels don't just burn to CO2, but release a slew of other toxic chemicals that probably aren't good for our health Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+0
I agree. "When you use clean energy, you don't have to pay for the millions of kids with asthma as a result of air pollution from coal. You don't have to pay some dictators to hand over their oil supplies." Important point! 
 Reply
Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+3
Using correct statistic statement, this study shows that the odds of that being caused by natural fluctuations are less than one in a hundred and are likely to be less than one in a thousand.
2 Replies
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-04-14
+0
If this is not enough, people should also remember that nasty climate surprises have occurred already, and more seem inevitable, perhaps within decades Reply
Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2016-05-07
+0
That addsseres several of my concerns actually. Reply


 

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