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Climate simulation links winter floods to global warming

RATE THIS! +36
Posted in Science on 3rd May, 2014 11:49 PM by AlexMuller

Britain’s warm, wet winter brought floods and misery to many living across southern England, with large parts of Somerset lying underwater for months. When in January rainfall was double the expected average over wide areas, many people made cautious links between such extreme weather and global climate change.

 

There were nay-sayers at the time but it now seems that there is evidence for those links. Speaking at the European Geosciences Union annual meeting here in Vienna, Myles Allen, a professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford, presented his take on the issue.

 

At the gathering of more than 12,000 geoscientists, Allen reported an ambitious computer experiment that his team has undertaken over the last two months to test whether the winter floods could be attributed to climate change. And it seems that they can be linked.

 
The floods of January 2014 certainly were extreme. According to Oxford’s records of daily rainfall, they were unprecedented in 250 years. The records at the UK Met Office from the 20th century also show that this winter was, historically, uniquely bad.
 
The IPCC report does suggest that extreme weather events should be expected as the world warms but the prediction is couched in cautious terms and the risk is assessed as “medium” confidence.

Tags: rainclimate changesimulationflood

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Comments

Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-05-04
+2
Modelling climate change is certainly helpful in particular in the UK where there is good record for over 250 years. The problem with this approach is the level of certainty Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-05-04
+3
An alternative approach to using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, is to examine historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature. This has been done recently with a clear answer: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.”
1 Replies
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-05-04
+1
Yes, this is very hot topic and there is deliberate attempt to deny evidence like this! An extensive study into the financial networks that support groups denying the science behind climate change and opposing political action has found a vast secretive web of think tanks and industry associations, bankrolled by conservative billionaires. This is very important to know when following any debate on this topic! Reply
Reply
Author: Guest
Posted: 2014-05-04
+3
The big problem facing the climate change actions is that there is a devising rather then unifying argument about the scale and impact. The issue remains a point of shallow debate - what is needed is a strong voice of urgency and action. We need more data that will strongly support a quick action! Reply


 

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