Solar to nearly triple by 2020 to about 450 GW and Wind to be about 750 GW
In 2015, China added more than 15 GW of solar capacity, surpassing Germany as the world’s largest solar market. China now has 43.2 GW of solar, compared to 38.4 in Germany and 27.8 in the US. Under its Five Year Plan, China will nearly triple solar capacity by 2020.
China intends to add 15 to 20 gigawatts of solar capacity each year for the next five years, which will bring China's installed solar power to more than 140 gigawatts. World solar capacity topped 200 gigawatts last year and is expected to reach 321 gigawatts by the end of 2016.
China’s massive solar panel manufacturing sector needs new markets for its products. Patrick Jobin, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said Monday that a solar panel glut could hit the sector this year as China’s top three producers, JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar, continue to ramp up production despite flattening international demand.
Global Solar power has been forecast to be 540 GW by 2020 in the high estimate, and 396 in the low, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA). China would move from 20% of the global solar power to 26-35%.
In 2014, annual global installed wind energy capacity reached an unprecedented 51.4 GW. 2015 global wind installation was abut 60GW. China installed 23 GW of wind capacity in 2014. Early estimates indicate China may have installed 25 GW in 2015.
China is looking at a market of about 25 GW per year for the next five years at least. China should have wind capacity of 250 GW in 2020 and offshore wind of over 30 GW by 2020. World Wind power in 2020 will be about 750 GW.