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Quote of the day

People say we're running out of energy. That's only true if we stick with these old 19th century technologies. We are awash in energy from sunlight.

 

Ray Kurzweil

 

Solar: The First 1 percent was by far the hardest

RATE THIS! +39
Posted in Science on 20th Jun, 2015 10:44 PM by AlexMuller

Solar power now provides roughly 1% of the world’s electricity. It took 40 years to reach that milestone. But, as they say in tech, the first 1% is the hardest. As solar prices drop, installation rate rises. As the installation rate rises, the price continues to drop due to the learning curve. So how fast is the acceleration?

 
Looking at the projections from GTM, it will take 3 more years to get the second 1%. Then less than 2 years to get the third 1%. And by 2020, solar will be providing almost 4% of global electricity. GTM expects that by 2020, the world will be installing 135 GW of solar every year, and will have reached a cumulative total of nearly 700 GW of solar, roughly four times the 185 GW installed today.
 
For context, at the end of 2013, after almost 40 years of effort, the world had a total of 138 GW of solar deployed. We’ll deploy almost that much in a single year in 2020. And the numbers will keep on rising.
 
The growth of the total amount of solar deployed around the world continues to look exponential, with a growth rate over the last 23 years of 38% per year. Over the last three years it’s slowed to a mere 22% per year.
 
All exponentials become S-curves in the long run. But for now, growth remains rapid, and may indeed accelerate once more as solar prices drop below those of fossil fuel generation and as energy storage plunges in price.

Tags: solarsolar energypowerenergyhardwarebusinessrenewables

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Comments

Author: Guest
Posted: 2015-06-21
+1
It is good to see some supporting evidence and prediction for exponential growth of solar power that is installed globally. We desperately need this and hopefully will be placed within the most polluted areas such as China Reply


 

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