GTM Research recently published a new analysis which predicts global solar PV installations will exceed 104 gigawatts (GW) in 2018. After an impressive 98.9 GW worth of solar were installed in 2017, most analysts are expecting 2018 to see the global solar sector exceed the 100 GW mark for the first time.
In January, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chief Editor Angus McCrone predicted that 2018 will see 107 GW worth of new solar capacity, while EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, predicted that the global solar market would install 106 GW. Last month, IHS Markit analysts predicted that global solar demand would hit 113 GW thanks in part to a massive fourth quarter of 34 GW.
Adding weight to the argument that 2018 solar will at least surpass 100 GW, GTM Research last month published its latest Global Solar Demand Monitor, which predicts that 104 GW worth of solar will be installed in 2018, a 6% annual growth. Further, GTM expects that annual installations will “easily exceed” 100 GW each year through to at least 2022.
Maybe more interesting, however, is GTM’s expectation that annual growth will be due, at least in part, to “geographic diversification” which will make up for a decline over the top four markets of 7%. Specifically, GTM expects to see Chinese solar installations to fall by 9.4% in 2018, though the country will still account for 47% of global demand. The United States market will stay steady in 2018, while India’s solar installations are expected to fall by around 26% (despite a record Q1).
According to the report, the US market is expected to add 10.6 gigawatts of solar PV in 2018 while India will install 7.1 gigawatts. The latter, however, seems unlikely if India did indeed install 4.6 GW of large-scale solar just in Q1.