Global plans to curb carbon dioxide are well below what’s needed to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees according to an analysis from a new study. It is the work of researchers from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of research institutions. They examined the commitments already made by governments to limit warming.
The CAT rated seven of the 15 submitted carbon plans as "inadequate" to keep temperatures below the accepted level of dangerous warming. The analysis was released at UN climate negotiation meet in Bonn aimed at advancing a new global treaty. As part of the attempts to tackle global warming, countries have agreed to submit their national plans to the UN before key talks in Paris in December.
So far 56 governments have published their "intended nationally determined contributions," or INDCs in the jargon of the UN. The likes of China, the US and the EU have already submitted their intentions. In this analysis, the CAT looked at the plans of 15 countries that between them account for almost 65% of global emissions.
However, seven, including Australia, Canada and Japan, were said to be "inadequate", meaning that they are not considered fair contributions to limiting warming to 2C. Six, including the US, EU and China were said to be "medium", meaning they are consistent with the target.
Two countries, Ethiopia and Morocco, were said to be "sufficient", and in line with the 2 degree goal. "It is clear that if the Paris meeting locks in present climate commitments for 2030, holding warming below 2C could essentially become infeasible, and 1.5 degrees C, beyond reach," said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, part of the CAT group.
According to the analysis, the commitments made so far would see temperature rises of up to 3C, with greater impacts on sea level rise and the frequency of extreme weather events.